Drought conditions persist in Rappahannock County, despite showers

‘Mother Nature is 90% of the success of farming’; fall may bring relief

The drought of 2024 is sticking around a while longer, even though local streams and rivers are beginning to return to normal seasonal levels, groundwater aquifers are slowly recharging, farmers are finally making their second cut of hay and anglers can again fish in Shenandoah National Park. 

No doubt Rappahannock County has improved from extreme drought status since June and July when it hit a 130-year record temperature with many 95-plus degree days and was designated a “primary natural disaster” area by the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture. 

But despite heavy rains in August from tropical storm Debby and subsequent scattered downpours bringing between 5.2 and 8.3 inches of rain, as of mid-September Rappahannock remained in “moderate” drought status, according to the U.S. government’s drought.gov monitor. 

Erik Taylor, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Sterling, said in an email that the rains in August yielded some improvements in soil moisture and stream flows across the region. “Even with that said, many of these locations are still 1-3 inches below average for the year to date,” he wrote. Average rainfall in Rappahannock County ranges between 4 and 4.7 inches per month during the summer. 

Overall, he stated, “Nothing stands out as a ‘drought busting’ type of weather feature in the extended period, although gradual improvements will continue given the lack of excessive heat and shortening daylight hours as we head into fall.” 

Back-to-back droughts 

“What made this year’s drought so bad is that it followed a serious drought from last year,” said David Massie, a conservation specialist with the Culpeper Soil and Water Conservation District. “With no significant snow this past winter and with the dry months of May, June and July, the back-to-back droughts compounded the problem.”

“Groundwater aquifers weren’t able to fully recharge so we began 2024 with a deficit. Streams and rivers were low, some wells were going dry or pumping sediment, and hay production was affected,” he said. 

Massie said the few hard, intensive rainfalls that did occur during summer did little to solve the problem. “When the ground becomes so dry, it’s like concrete, and heavy rains can’t soak into the soil. That leads to moisture loss and subsequently problems with growing pasture grasses and row crops,” he said. 

“Even though we got a couple of days of good rain in mid-August, we are still in a drought,” said Kenner Love, the Virginia Tech extension agent for the county. “A few farmers have had to haul water, and hay and row crop yields have declined. Losses vary across the county, depending on where these scattered showers hit. Overall, water supplies are down and it is going to take a while for them to build back up,” he said. 

‘Plants are like armor’

Regenerative agricultural practices, such as frequent rotational grazing and leaving more forage on the ground, have shown to help mitigate drought conditions and improve soil health and biodiversity on farmlands. 

Kathryn Everett, owner of Chancellors Rock Farm, is embracing regenerative agriculture on her 699-acre cattle farm outside of Flint Hill. Everett and her husband, Tony, are implementing demonstration projects to show how regenerative grazing practices can support both livestock and the environment. 

“By combining a variety of sustainable management practices we want to demonstrate how working lands can be good for cattle, food production, conservation and biodiversity,” Everett said. 

One of the key objectives of regenerative agriculture is building soil health and that means retaining moisture in the ground. Many pastures in Rappahannock are planted with fescue and other “cool weather” grasses which go dormant in summer, and if grazed too low, soil temperatures increase. Everett is planting more drought resistant “warm weather” annual grasses like sudan grass, pearl millet, buckwheat and clover in former cornfields to rebuild the soil and help it retain more moisture.

“Plants are the armor on the earth,” she said. “If you graze down to 90% of plant height, roots stop growing which raises the temperature of the soil making it hard for grasses to rebound, especially in dry conditions. But by grazing down to 50%, root systems will grow deeper making the soil aggregate ‘chunky,’ allowing for more capacity for water retention.”

And it’s not just farming operations that are affected. Forests, fish and homeowners are feeling the effects of the dry weather pattern, too.

“The drought has clearly stressed trees and mortality has been exacerbated, especially in oak trees which have also been plagued by multiple root diseases,” said Jeremy Clem, owner of Blue Ridge Forestry in Flint Hill. “Overall we have been lucky. Forests west of the Blue Ridge Mountains have been hit by the gypsy moth, and combined with drought conditions, the mortality there is much worse than east of the mountains.”

Clem said trees’ adaptive systems generally do well in staving off drought. If there is not enough water they shut down and go into a defensive mode to protect against a lack of moisture. “But extended droughts over long periods and high temperatures can increase mortality rates,” he said. 

A lack of moisture is a factor affecting leaf color during the fall foliage season. Scientists suggest stress caused by severe drought can result in leaves coloring early and lasting for shorter periods, while a more moderate drought can delay the peak of fall color. This paradox may be related to the response of a tree’s metabolic process to the intensity of drought conditions. 

According to Explore Fall, LLC, which predicts fall foliage colors using real-time weather conditions, peak colors in Rappahannock are predicted to begin the last two weeks in October lasting into early November.

Low stream levels

A midsummer drought can dramatically upset aquatic ecosystems.

“It was extraordinary to see the water in Rappahanock’s streams so low,” said John Odenkirk, district fisheries biologist for the Virginia Department of Wildlife Resources.

“Three things occur when stream levels are low: Fish get less oxygen, have difficulty adapting to warmer waters, and when confined to small pools, are easy targets for predators. Combine those stressors with the bacteria and viruses already in the ecosystem and you can see declining fish populations,” he said. 

Odenkirk is looking to more normal conditions in the fall months when most of the streams and rivers flowing on the east side of the Blue Ridge Mountains are at lower levels. “The natural environment is programmed to deal with some level of drought during those months,” he said. “Fish have finished spawning, temperatures are cooler. There isn’t a lot going on ecosystem-wise, so low water doesn’t always present a problem during that time of year.”

Thus far residential wells fared better during this year’s drought compared to 2023. To date only 16 replacement wells have been drilled in the Rappahannock-Rapidan Health District compared to 50 last year.

Jay Eaves, of Aquaman Water Service in Amissville, reported he’s seen few issues with residential wells. “On balance, home well owners use little water and those with supply problems are older, low yield wells that are less than 50 feet deep,” he said.

Not all bad

Waterpenny Farm in Sperryville draws water for its operations from the Thornton River. This year there was enough water in the river to water the farm’s crops.

“Due to low water levels we’ve had to stop drawing from the river only two or three times over the past 25 years, including last year,” said co-owner Eric Plaksin. “Thankfully, that wasn’t the case this year,” he said.

This year’s growing season has been good for Waterpenny. 

“Through extensive mulching and our efficient drip irrigation system, the soil is able to stay moist and healthy,” Plaksin said, “The dry weather tamps down weeds and plant diseases, and allows us to devote more time to growing vegetables. Overall, drier weather works to our advantage.” 

Bob Ryan, Woodville resident and retired television meteorologist, does not see a long-term problem for the county’s water resources or agriculture.

“Although there is no sign of a change to a wet pattern, I think we are in pretty good shape,” he said. “We’ve been in a short-term dry pattern which reflects the natural variability of weather. It doesn’t mean we’ll soon see a Rappahannock desert. Once we get into late September and October we’ll probably see a regression to more normal wet and dry cycles.” 

“Mother Nature is 90% of the success of farming,” said Mike Cannon, manager of the CFC Farm & Home Center In Rappahannock, which sells seed, fertilizer and other farm supplies. “You can do all the planting and fertilizing that you like, but without the rain you’re not going to have success. We’ve rebounded somewhat, so going into fall with the cooler weather, things are looking better. Everything has a way of working out,” he said. 

Sign up for Rapp News Daily, a free newsletter delivered to your email inbox every morning.