Prices are up, and more broadband access might make the county an even more attractive place to work from home. How will that impact it as a place to live?
For all the adversity it has brought to local families, schools and businesses, the COVID-19 pandemic has been particularly good to one part of the Rappahannock County community: its real estate market.
Demand for homes and land during the past two years has shot up to levels not seen in 15 years, driven largely by people hoping to find a rural sanctuary from the virus and more congested neighborhoods where infection risks seem to be greater.
Home sales reflect that. In 2020, 136 houses were sold in Rappahannock County, according to reports filed with the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). That’s compared to an average of 83 homes annually from 2015 through 2019, a spike of 63%. And, through the end of October, sales have maintained that pace this year, with 101 homes sold, compared to 107 through the same period last year.
Rick Kohler, Real Estate III: “Once the internet comes, more people will want to live here permanently, and developers could have more interest. We really need to be ahead of the game rather than reactive.” (Photo/Luke Christopher)
“Last year, when things got really bad, a lot of people just wanted to get away from the city,” said Rick Kohler, an agent at Real Estate III and also a member of the county’s Planning Commission. “A lot of people just stayed out here, the Airbnbs were full and it was really hard to find a rental.”
But beyond that, as many adapted to working from home, the prospect of a future without the constraints of a conventional office job prompted more to seriously consider a move to the country.
“When things were really busy back in 2005 and 2006, home sales were more bucket list purchases for people living in retirement or approaching retirement,” said Cheri Woodard, of Cheri Woodard Realty. “This market feels very different. This has been more a case of people saying, ‘I could really live here if I can get internet.’ Lifestyle has become a higher priority, as opposed to someone just wanting to own a place in the country.”
That trend, along with low interest rates and a flourishing stock market that’s inflated cushions of personal wealth, has boosted sales to the point where inventory has fallen to about 40 properties still on the market, about half what you’d typically see in Rappahannock. More than a third of those listings are priced over $1 million, according to Adam Beroza, an agent at Cheri Woodard Realty.
With fewer homes available, sales of raw land have climbed to 52 parcels through the first three quarters of this year. Last year, 36 were sold during the same period.
“Once we had gone through a lot of the inventory, land sales started to pick up,” said Beroza. “I really think home sales could have doubled if more properties were for sale. But even with the low inventory, I fully expect that this year will end up higher than last year. The demand is still there.”
Prices rising
Not surprisingly, all that demand has driven up prices. In 2014, the average sale in the county, Beroza noted, was for slightly more than $300,000. Through the first three quarters of this year, it was around $630,000.
It’s important to keep in mind that because of the relatively small number of real estate transactions in Rappahannock — Fauquier County can have 10 times as many in a year — averages and percentage gains and losses should be taken with a grain of salt. That said, in the first three quarters of 2021, the number of home sales higher than $500,000 — 42 — is only slightly lower than those below $500,000 — 45. Ten of the home and property purchases have been for more than $1 million.
Real estate agents say they’ve seen considerably more competition among potential buyers when properties go on the market. “People will come out and look at property and say, ‘Wow, it’s so cheap here,’” said Woodard.
Some agents have also noticed a subtle change in the demographics of Rappahannock’s real estate market, which for years has been dominated by retirees or those nearing retirement. Older buyers still are the clear majority, but there’s a sense that more younger ones are in the mix.
Alan Zuschlag, Washington Fine Properties: “Developers are not going to destroy what we have because of broadband…Broadband will help people stay where they are, and it will help local children get an education here.” (Photo/Luke Christopher)
“If you’ve been told your office in town is closing, now you have more options for where you can live,” said Alan Zuschlag, an agent with Washington Fine Properties. “The usual trajectory of moving to a nearby suburb no longer needs to be. Suddenly, some young people can say, ‘Hey, we can raise our family in a really nice environment in the country.’”
Zuschlag thinks that could create more competition for homes at the lower end of the market. “I’ve seen instances of more modest, starter homes being bid up by people who want them and have deeper pockets,” he said.
Preserving Rappahannock
It’s still too soon to say how the ripples of COVID will ultimately affect Rappahannock as a place to live. Chances are it will become increasingly attractive to people who can work from home, particularly if the county’s Broadband Authority is successful in significantly expanding and upgrading internet service here. That, insisted Zuschlag, would be a valuable community asset, not a liability.
“Developers are not going to destroy what we have because of broadband,” he said. “It’s going to help preserve what we have, not hurt it. That is a stupid, stupid argument people are using to fear-monger, but it’s not going to happen. Broadband will help people stay where they are, and it will help local children get an education here.”
Zuschlag believes Rappahannock will be able to maintain its pastoral identity because that’s so central to its appeal. “We are resolutely rural and want to stay rural,” he said. “We’re seeing people who really appreciate what we’ve created here and want to preserve it.”
But Woodard suggested that might take more diligence in the future. “We’ve never had much developer interest. We’ve had good zoning, but I think there’s pressure coming,” she said. “You look at the development at Clevenger’s Corner, and that’s kind of scary. I can’t see that kind of development happening in Rappahannock, but it’s right at our doorstep.” That large mixed-use development is located at the corner of Lee Highway (U.S. 211) and Rixeyville Road (Route 229), just across the Rappahannock border in Culpeper County.
Cheri Woodard, Cheri Woodard Reality: “This market feels very different. This has been more a case of people saying, ‘I could really live here if I can get internet.’” (Photo/Luke Christopher)
She applauded those who have placed their land in conservation easement. Woodard said she’s lost sales when potential buyers learned a property could never be developed because it was in easement. “But easements here are very significant,” she said. “That’s how you protect the place.”
Kohler thinks that, given the trends of the past two years, it’s time for local officials to take a closer look at the county’s zoning and make sure that it’s as protective as most residents believe it is.
“Are there things that can be challenged? That’s going to be critical to the county,” he said. “Once the internet comes, more people will want to live here permanently, and developers could have more interest.”
“We really need to be ahead of the game rather than reactive.”
