The Rappahannock-Rapidan Regional Commission (RRRC) recently finalized the results of a year-long housing study showing the current and projected need for residences and offering strategies and recommendations for each locality to consider.
In the five-county region, the study found that a gap exists between household income and the cost of a median-priced home. That gap is greatest in Rappahannock. It also found that home sales and prices have increased in the county since 2015, while short-term rental stock grew 43 percent — from 29 to 67 units — in the past three years. And while population growth is projected to decline and therefore will not drive future demand, demand is likely to come from the “underhoused” — those aged 18-34 living with roommates or family but wanting a place of their own.
Those findings may not come as a surprise to many. But Patrick Mauney, executive director of RRRC, said one value of the study is that it provides another source of information that local governments and nonprofits can look to as they make decisions about future planning, update their comprehensive plans or look for funding to do things like support home repairs.
“I do hope that it’s the beginning of a long-term conversation and, hopefully, some projects that make sense depending on where they go,” he said.
Mauney also said it’s more important to look at demographic trends than specific numbers to see where opportunities for addressing future housing needs might exist.
“What we saw really throughout the region with the population growth … was that the housing demand was spread very widely among income levels,” he explained.
The data on demand among the underhoused, on the other hand, gets to some of the conversations Rappahannock has had previously about housing and the rental market and how younger demographics in particular have had difficulty being able to locate suitable housing, Mauney noted. That’s a regional and even national issue, he said.
The income-to-housing-cost deficit
The study also compares average household incomes earned within each county against recent home sales data to examine housing affordability for those who work locally. It found that in every county resident workers earn less than what’s needed to afford a median-priced home.
The income-housing cost deficit data attempts to show that people commuting out for work are bringing home higher wages, which puts pressure on housing prices, Mauney said. “While if you have someone who wants to live and work in the county then it becomes more difficult because the incomes and wages provided in the region don’t meet the median sales price on a home.”
“I think a study like this certainly highlights that we need to look carefully within our zoning ordinance and while we’re protecting open space we’re not intentionally precluding sensible housing-related change,” said Keir Whitson, Hampton District supervisor and chairman of the Planning Commission.
Mauney said that’s where it could be important to look at existing houses and structures that are available and might meet some of the demand. He pointed toward home repair and rehabilitation as community investment opportunities.
Several local nonprofits and county officials have expressed support for such activities.
Timing matters
Mauney has been making the rounds to local governments and other organizations to present the overall study and discuss locally relevant information. But Rappahannock has just adopted its revised comprehensive plan, so now might not be the best time to jump back into a conversation on the issue, he said.
County Administrator Garrey Curry said he plans to deliver a presentation to the Planning Commission aimed at driving updates to the comprehensive plan, which officials have recognized should be revised more frequently going forward than it was in the past.
But that will come only after the commission has cleared some of the recent ordinance amendments that are first on its priority list at the behest of the Board of Supervisors. In the meantime, Curry said the county would be paying attention to its neighbors and their recommendations.
“It does have a lot of information on recognizing what’s available,” he said about the study. “I’m not sure it has a lot of information on identifying the need.”
Curry still has questions about the effect of high seasonal occupancy numbers, for example, or the proportion of second homes in short-term rental. “It’s viewed as a negative but there isn’t really anything to show that just because you have second homes it changes the cost of housing in the county,” he said.
Whitson said the data that shows an increase in short-term rentals was an indication to him that the county needed to hold strong on rules that set out a minimum acreage for tourist homes in order to keep those numbers low.
“We can talk hypothetically about an affordable housing problem or lack of affordable housing, but nobody has really tested that assumption. We haven’t seen people build a number of houses on a property and see what the demand might be,” he said.
“While I appreciate that there is this sense and perhaps now some numerical data suggesting that there might be some need for lower cost housing … whatever the possible solution is to that problem has to be small-scale and incremental. It’s the only thing that makes sense for a county like ours.”
Data points for RRRC regional housing study story
-Rappahannock has 9.1% of its rental stock in seasonal rentals, such as Airbnb and VRBO. Short-term rentals have increased from 29 in 2017 to 67 in 2020. Why that matters: A higher seasonal rental rate is putting additional pressure on the rental market and could be limiting the amount of year-round rental stock.
-One quarter of Rappahannock’s population is over 65, and Rappahannock is aging faster than other counties in the region. Why that matters: Different age groups have different housing needs. Understanding age distribution can help align needs with amenities.
-Rappahannock has the largest proportion of homes valued between $750k-$999k and $1M or greater. Why that matters: Understanding how home values are distributed helps understand where there may be gaps in the housing supply.
-To afford a median-priced home in Rappahannock, resident workers would need to earn $69,600 per household, or $21,625 more than they do currently. Why that matters: To allow people to live and work in the same place means ensuring an adequate supply of housing for placed-based professions.
By Sara Schonhardt
For Foothills Forum
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